Marketing automation is a booming industry, with investments expected to reach $9.7 billion by 2031. Businesses are increasingly relying on Automated Lead Nurturing (ALN) to guide potential customers through the sales funnel. But does ALN actually improve conversion rates, or is it just another trend?
A new Journal of Marketing study finds that ALN is effective—but only under specific conditions. Some businesses experience significant increases in sales, while others see little to no impact. The key factors determining success include the nature of the sales cycle, deal complexity, and whether the customer is new or returning.
We uncover a critical insight: ALN enhances lead interactions and improves the quality of sales conversations, but it does not guarantee higher conversion rates across all industries. ALN works best when used for new leads, short sales cycles, and lower-value deals. However, its benefits decline in high-ticket purchases or industries where buyers conduct extensive independent research.
ALN works best when used for new leads, short sales cycles, and lower-value deals. However, its benefits decline in high-ticket purchases or industries where buyers conduct extensive independent research.
This distinction has major implications for businesses investing in ALN. Many companies measure ALN success using vanity metrics—email opens, click-through rates, and engagement levels—without assessing whether those interactions lead to actual sales. Our findings suggest that firms should rethink how they evaluate automation success and shift their focus to measuring ALN’s impact on meaningful outcomes like sales meetings and conversions.
When ALN Works—and When It Doesn’t
For companies selling relatively simple products or services with shorter sales cycles, ALN can be a powerful tool. By delivering targeted content at the right time, ALN reduces uncertainty for potential buyers and ensures that sales teams engage with more informed prospects. Our research finds that in such cases, ALN can lead to a 23 percentage point increase in conversion rates.
However, for industries with long and complex sales cycles, such as B2B enterprise software or industrial equipment, ALN’s impact is less clear. In these cases, buyers rely on detailed research, peer recommendations, and in-depth consultations rather than automated content. ALN may increase engagement but does not necessarily lead to more closed deals.
Returning customers also respond differently to ALN compared to first-time buyers. Since they already have a relationship with the brand, they are less likely to need automated content to guide their purchase decision. This means companies must differentiate how they nurture new versus existing leads, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach.
Are Businesses Measuring the Wrong Metrics?
One of the biggest mistakes we observe is companies focusing too much on engagement metrics rather than true business outcomes. Many firms evaluate ALN success on the basis of email opens, website visits, or social media interactions. Although these indicators suggest interest, they do not necessarily translate into revenue.
Our research suggests that businesses should measure ALN effectiveness by tracking:
- Lead-to-sales meeting conversion rates (Does ALN drive actual conversations between buyers and sales teams?)
- Sales cycle speed (Does ALN shorten the time it takes to close a deal?)
- Revenue impact (Does ALN increase the number of closed deals and overall profitability?)
Shifting to these meaningful metrics will help businesses make informed decisions about ALN’s true value.
How Companies Can Use ALN Strategically
We find that ALN works best as an enhancement—not a replacement—for human sales interactions. Companies that rely too heavily on automation risk alienating high-value prospects who expect personalized, consultative selling. Instead of viewing ALN as a standalone solution, businesses should:
- Segment their leads and tailor ALN for different customer groups (e.g., new vs. returning buyers).
- Use ALN to complement human interactions, rather than replace them, particularly for complex sales.
- Refine ALN strategies over time by tracking real business outcomes rather than engagement metrics.
For marketing leaders, the takeaway is clear: ALN can be a powerful tool, but only if it is applied strategically. Businesses should test its impact before fully committing, ensuring that automation aligns with their sales process rather than relying on industry hype.
Read the Full Study for Complete Details
Source: Johannes Habel, Nathaniel Hartmann, Phillip Wiseman, Michael Ahearne, and Shashank Vaid, “Sales Pipeline Technology: Automated Lead Nurturing,” Journal of Marketing.
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Johannes Habel is Michael J. Cemo Associate Professor of Marketing, University of Houston, USA.
Nathaniel N. Hartmann is Associate Professor of Marketing and Innovation, University of South Florida, USA.
Phillip Wiseman is Assistant Professor of Marketing, Texas Tech University, USA.
Michael Ahearne is C.T. Bauer Professor of Marketing, University of Houston, USA.
Shashank Vaid is Assistant Professor of Marketing, McMaster University, Canada.